1. Introduction

Bangladesh is in the midst of a political earthquake, with the sudden resignation of Sheikh Hasina, the country's longest-serving prime minister, sending shockwaves throughout the region. This seismic shift has thrown Bangladesh into a crisis, raising pressing questions about India's influence and the broader geopolitical consequences. The crisis began with a student-led protest against a controversial quota system in civil service recruitment, but it's rooted in a complex interplay of economic, political, and social factors that have been building up over the years.

Sheikh Hasina's governance had become increasingly authoritarian, with her administration suppressing political dissent, overseeing numerous extrajudicial killings, and systematically consolidating power by placing loyalists in key state institutions. The benefits of Bangladesh's significant economic growth during her tenure were unevenly distributed, with the wealthiest 10% of the population controlling 41% of the nation's total income, while the poorest 10% received just over 1%. This stark inequality, combined with a youth unemployment rate estimated to be as high as 40% among those aged 15 to 24, generated widespread frustration, particularly among younger citizens.

India's involvement in the recent events in Bangladesh is both complex and strategically significant. India has viewed Sheikh Hasina as a key ally in securing Indian interests in Bangladesh, and her leadership played a crucial role in supporting India's efforts to curb insurgency and advance connectivity projects vital to India's strategic goals. However, as her governance grew increasingly authoritarian and her popularity declined, India found itself in a challenging position, with the US considering sanctions against her administration due to human rights abuses.

The role of the US is also significant, with the country urging all sides to refrain from further violence and calling for a peaceful transition to democracy. The European Union has called for calm and restraint, while Canada has issued a statement condemning human rights violations and reiterating its support for the people of Bangladesh.

As the situation in Bangladesh continues to unfold, it's clear that the crisis has far-reaching implications for Pakistan and the region. The future of Bangladesh's relations with India, China, and other regional players is uncertain, and the country's economic and political stability are at risk. One thing is certain, however: the sudden resignation of Sheikh Hasina has marked a new era in Bangladesh's politics, and the country will never be the same again

Context of the Political Upheaval in Bangladesh

• Bangladesh, a key player in South Asia, has been navigating a severe political and economic crisis since 2024.
• Allegations of electoral fraud, authoritarianism, and corruption under Sheikh Hasina's government triggered mass protests and political instability.
•  This crisis has significant implications, not only for Bangladesh but for its neighbors, particularly Pakistan.

2. Bangladesh's Political Upheaval: Causes and Effects

Causes of the Political Crisis

Electoral Fraud Allegations

• Widespread protests followed allegations of rigged elections in 2024, undermining public trust in the democratic process.
• International observers, including the European Union, noted irregularities in polling stations.
• Opposition leader Tariq Rahman accused the Awami League of blatant vote manipulation.

Economic Mismanagement and Corruption

• Transparency International ranked Bangladesh as one of the most corrupt nations in South Asia in 2023.
• Inflation peaked at 11.3%, eroding purchasing power and worsening poverty.
• Mismanagement of mega-projects like the Padma Bridge intensified public anger.

Crackdown on Political Dissent

• The government arrested opposition leaders and suppressed protests through excessive force. 
• Independent media faced censorship, with over 20 journalists detained in 2024.
• Freedom House downgraded Bangladesh to "partly free" due to increasing restrictions on civil liberties.

Effects of the Crisis

Social Unrest

• Protests across major cities led to violent clashes, with over 450 deaths reported. 
• Ethnic and religious minorities have been disproportionately affected by the unrest.
• Social polarization deepened, dividing communities along political and ideological lines.

Economic Consequences

• The garment industry, Bangladesh's economic backbone, suffered massive disruptions, with exports dropping by 30% in the second half of 2024.
• Case Study: Major brands like H&M and Primark temporarily halted orders, impacting millions of workers.
• The country's GDP growth slowed to 4.2%, down from 6.8% in 2023.

Regional Spillovers

Trade routes through Bangladesh faced blockades, affecting India, Nepal, and Bhutan.

The crisis disrupted supply chains for raw materials and goods, creating inflationary pressures in neighboring economies.

3. Historical Context of Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations

Legacy of the 1971 Liberation War

• The war of 1971 left deep scars on Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, with unresolved issues like war reparations and the trial of war criminals.
• Case Study: The International Crimes Tribunal in Bangladesh convicted several individuals tied to Pakistan 's military during the war, keeping tensions alive.

Diplomatic Attempts at Normalization

• Efforts to normalize ties began in the early 2000s, with a focus on trade and cultural cooperation.
• In 2021, Pakistan removed visa restrictions for Bangladeshis, signaling a thaw in relations.
• Despite these efforts, mistrust persists, fueled by historical grievances and geopolitical dynamics.

4. Political Implications for Pakistan

Lessons for Governance

• Bangladesh's political turmoil highlights the dangers of electoral manipulation and authoritarianism.
• Pakistan's leadership faces similar allegations and must prioritize transparency to maintain public trust.
• Example: Protests in Pakistan following the ousting of Imran Khan in 2022 mirrored Bangladesh's unrest.

Geopolitical Repercussions

• The crisis in Bangladesh could shift regional alliances, strengthening India's influence in  South Asia.
• Pakistan's role in regional forums like SAARC could be marginalized if Bangladesh aligns more closely with India.
• Case Study: The 2023 India-Bangladesh military cooperation agreement exemplifies India's growing sway.

Border and Security Concerns

Political instability in Bangladesh could exacerbate cross-border issues such as smuggling and refugee inflows.

Pakistan must enhance regional security dialogues to address potential spillovers from Bangladesh.

5. Economic Impacts on Pakistan

Trade Challenges

• Trade disruptions in Bangladesh's economy affect Pakistan's exports, especially raw materials like cotton.
• Example: Pakistan exported S800 million worth of cotton to Bangladesh in 2023, a figure expected to decline.

New Opportunities in Textiles

• With Bangladesh's garment industry struggling, Pakistan's textile sector has an opportunity to fill the gap.
• Case Study: Textile exports from Pakistan to Europe grew by 12% in 2024 as brands sought alternative suppliers.

Investment Risks

• Pakistani investors in Bangladesh, particularly in banking and telecommunications, face uncertainty.
• Example: Telenor Pakistan, with operations in Bangladesh, reported operational losses due to the crisis.

6. Social and Cultural Implications

Diaspora Connections

• The Pakistani and Bangladeshi diasporas in the Gulf have been instrumental in fostering informal trade and cultural ties.
• Joint initiatives by these communities aim to promote reconciliation and cooperation.

Media Narratives

• Coverage of the crisis in Pakistani media focuses on lessons for Pakistan's political stability.
• Example: Talk shows have frequently drawn comparisons between political movements in both countries.

Cultural Commonalities

• Shared interests in cricket and cuisine continue to connect the people of both nations despite political differences.
• Example: Bangladesh and Pakistan matches in the Asia Cup remain widely watched events.

7. Impact on the Region

Trade and Connectivity

• Disruptions in Bangladesh's trade routes have impacted India, Bhutan, and Nepal.
• The crisis has slowed regional projects like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicle Agreement.

Rise of India's Regional Influence

• India's prompt support for Bangladesh during its political crisis has strengthened bilateral ties.
• Example: India provided $500 million in emergency economic assistance to Bangladesh in 2024.

Security Concerns in South Asia

• Political unrest in Bangladesh risks creating a vacuum for extremist groups to exploit, raising regional security challenges.
• Neighboring countries, including Pakistan, are on high alert for cross-border instability.

Implications for SAARC

• Bangladesh's turmoil underscores the inefficacy of SAARC in addressing regional crises.
• The crisis presents an opportunity for South Asian countries to rethink the role of regional organizations in maintaining stability.

8. Conclusion and Recommendations

• The political crisis in Bangladesh has far-reaching implications for Pakistan and the South Asian region.
• Pakistan must draw lessons from Bangladesh's experience, focusing on democratic reforms, economic resilience, and regional cooperation.
• Strengthening diplomatic ties with Bangladesh could mitigate the negative impacts and open new avenues for collaboration.
• Regional stability requires a renewed commitment from all South Asian nations to address shared challenges through dialogue and cooperation.